MarketBullets® Pre-Dawn Monday, Dec 30 2024

     US weekly net sales of wheat for the week just ended 12-19 were 612,400 tonnes, a 34%  rise from the previous week and 64% above the 4-week average.

     Brazil is seeing increased estimates for December total wheat shipments.  

     Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) estimates Argentine wheat at 64% harvested and 86% “normal to excellent” condition versus 58% this time last year.

     The markets are still in semi-holiday mode for the second short-ended week. Christmas week produced a net gain of 13½ cents in nearby Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat futures, closing at its highest since December 16. KC Hard Red Winter (HRW) futures were up  10 for the week and Minneapolis Hard Red Spring (HRS) gained 5½. Paris Milling Wheat jumped the equivalent of 16½ cents per bushel.

     Very early Monday, Chicago was up 2¼-cents, about 20 cents above its recent December 4 lows. The 61-session trend channel is still negative-sloped. The last trading week of 2024 will reveal if the market can gather sufficient buying energy to push above the top end of the range. Final cash sales for the calendar year for tax purposes may provide a weight on prices, but they will have to be on the books by early Tuesday.   

     Wheat futures trade will close early on Tuesday, December 31 at 10 AM Pacific Time and will re-open on Thursday, January 2nd for regular hours.       

     The trend is still not healthy, as the charts still shows a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. A closing break above $5.69 would be a clear warning of upward forces in Chicago SRW, while a closing low below $5.29 would create a hole in the bottom allowing technical expectations of still lower movement. This environment is a “marketing plan delight”, with incremental sales of both old and new crop on a “go-ahead” basis. The downside risk is lower than it was a month ago, so many producers are likely to defer sales into the new year. It’s hard to fault this idea.

     There is little drama on the news wires, as the trade seems likely to remain muted until next Monday, January 6.

Stay tuned. Happy New Year.      

MarketBullets® Friday Dec 27, 2024: Pre-Dawn  

     Algeria completed a 1.1 million metric tonne milling wheat purchase on Christmas week in an international tender, sourcing from multiple vendors, mostly to be shipped from February thru March. Even though no U.S. origin wheat was involved, this kind of hefty buy gave the whole wheat complex some lift.

     This time of year, wheat is often sensitive to corn and soybeans as a market lead. Both corn and beans have come up off of long-term lows. Beans had been struggling until China stepped in and bought a few loads in spite of cheaper beans from Brazil. Corn has been in an uptrend since 4-year lows printed in August.

     Given the absence of global political or military drama, wheat trade volume is likely to remain slow in low volume until Jan 2. Money funds have mostly completed their year-end adjustments and the charts are not scaring them into any box-canyons. 

     The wheat price trend is sideways in a narrow range. The boundaries are well observed by the trade, so any breakout from the range is likely to trigger some trading energy in either direction.

We can track this market. Stay tuned.   

PS – Noticeables:  <Diesel>    <Gold>     <US Dollar Index>    <Ruble VS Yuan>    <2-Yr T-Note>

Good hunting!   

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26 Mules - Skyrocket Hills,

North of Prescott, Washington

North of Prescott, Washington

“Its the 70th year in a row of unusual weather!’ - Winston Mader (1930 - 2016)

“Prayers Work Best When Your Trades Are With The Trend“ - Larry Williams

“When things go wrong, you'll find they usually go on getting worse for some time; but when things once start going right they often go on getting better and better.” - C.S. Lewis, The Horse and His Boy.

“It Don’t Mean a Thing if it Ain’t Got That Swing” - Duke Ellington - 1932

“If I am worth anything later, I am worth something now. For wheat is wheat, even if people think it is a grass in the beginning.” – Vincent van Gogh.

Scroll down Below Text for Charts of Weekly Chicago SRW - Weekly KC HRW - Weekly Mpls HRS

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Click on any of the following:

<Paris Milling Wheat Daily> <U.S. Dollar Index Monthly> <WTI/Brent/Urals Crude>

Diesel Daily> <Wheat Spreads> <Gold> <Nat Gas> <Interest Rates>

<Historical Previous Update Record> <Carbon> <Special Info Item>

<Weekly Ruble/Yuan> <Fibonacci Spiral>

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