As of Friday March 21, 2025: Pre-Dawn

Diesel fuel contracts of 42,000 gallons delivered to New York Harbor destinations is trading near long-term low supports just above the $2.23 per gallon zone. The high end of the last year’s trade is about $2.80 per gallon. The current price is in the bottom 1/3 of the last 12 months work, with a slight, contra-trend tilt.

There is a warning pattern in the extended futures market structure, as the nearby versus deferred spreads are moving toward a much more inverted pattern (Nearby prices stronger than deferred), suggesting an increase in demand for short-term contracts. The Straits of Hormuz, a long familiar and essential global energy shipping “choke point” remain open and operating. Demand for gasoline and Diesel has softened with economic slowdown in China, while supply has expanded. (See graphic below) Crude oil is 50% of the diesel price, the balance is refining, transport, and taxes. As an economic canary similar to copper prices, the current implication of lower fuel prices is global economic slowing.