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Base Chart (Non-Annotated) courtesy of Trade Navigator.

As of Friday Mar 21, 2025: Pre-Dawn

On March 7th, Paris milling wheat futures punched out a low that dates back to November of 2024. The down move was a decline of €27.00 per metric tonne, about 78 cents in USD per bushel ending on March 7. The Global markets have continued to reflect that it is easy to buy wheat. The €223.00 price, the January low, was a critical technical support level, that resoundingly failed. It is to be expected that a “corrective” bounce is underway, but any rally now would have to be defined as “contra-trend”, a notoriously difficult move to capture for traders.

This contract is increasingly a leader in global wheat pricing, and it’s patterns are a signature of a large portion of global demand markets.

The Marché à Terme International de France "International Futures Exchange of France" trades in Paris. France is the largest wheat producing nation in the European Union, so the Paris Milling Wheat (now known as “EuroNext” contract is significant to the region and to the world, including the Black Sea origins. As Russia and Ukraine together account for a solid third of the entire global wheat export trade, Paris has emerged as a key price discovery point. When this price leader breaks downward, the world cannot ignore the pattern.

Paris wheat lives in the shadow of the Russian/UIkrainian wheat machine that will continue to set the low price boundary of the global markets. Paris wheat can be used as a market canary reflecting Russian domination of their regional wheat sales territory.